Michael Lee Weintraub

Peer-reviewed publications

• Loss Framing and Risk-Taking in Territorial Disputes (with Andi Zhou and Hein Goemans). Pre-Analysis Plan. PDF. Journal of Politics. Conditionally accepted.

• Mano Dura: An Experimental Evaluation of Military Policing in Cali, Colombia (with Rob Blair and Lucía Mendoza Mora). Pre-Analysis Plan. American Journal of Political Science. Forthcoming. PDF.

• Out-Competing Rivals: Armed Group Governance and Civilian Attitudes in Colombia (with Erica De Bruin, Gabriella Levy, and Livia Schubiger). American Political Science Review. Forthcoming. PDF.

• Did Covid-19 Change Armed Group Governance? Evidence from a Survey of Local Security Authorities in Colombia (with Erica De Bruin). 2023. Bulletin of Latin American Research. PDF.

• Introducing the Mapping Attitudes, Perceptions and Support (MAPS) Dataset on the Colombian Peace Process (with Helga Binningsbø, Marianne Dahl, Håvard Nygård, Sebastián Pantoja, and Abbey Steele). 2023. Journal of Peace Research. PDF.

• Little Evidence that Military Policing Reduces Crime or Improves Human Security (with Rob Blair). 2023. Nature Human Behaviour 7: 861-873. PDF.

Press coverage in El Tiempo.

Press coverage in 070.

• Introduction to the Special Symposium: Collective Vigilantism in Global Comparative Perspective (with Dara Kay Cohen and Danielle Jung). 2023. Comparative Politics 55(2). PDF.

• Preventing Rebel Resurgence after Civil War: A Field Experiment in Security and Justice Provision in Rural Colombia (with Rob Blair, Manuel Moscoso, and Andrés Vargas). 2022. American Political Science Review. PDF.

• Best paper presented at the American Political Science Association 2020 Meeting, Experimental Research Section.

• Reducing Alcohol-Related Violence with Bartenders: A Behavioral Field Experiment (with Andrés Ham, Darío Maldonado, Andrés Felipe Camacho and Daniela Gualtero). American Economic Association RCT Registry page. 2022. Journal of Policy Analysis and Management (JPAM) 41(3): 731-761. PDF.

• The 2016 Election and America’s Standing Abroad: Quasi-Experimental Evidence of a ‘Trump Effect’ (with Regina Bateson). 2022. Journal of Politics 84(4). PDF.

• Legacies of Resistance: Mobilization Against Organized Crime in Mexico (with Javier Osorioand Livia Schubiger). 2021. Comparative Political Studies. PDF.

• Urban Concentration and Civil War (with Dani Nedaland Megan Stewart). 2020. Journal of Conflict Resolution 64(6):1146-1171. PDF.

• Trust in the Executive: Requiring Consensus and Turn-Taking in the Experimental Lab (with T. Clark Durant, Daniel Houser and Shuwen Li). 2018. Journal of Peace Research 55(5): 609-624. PDFand online appendix.

• Disappearing Dissent? Repression and State Consolidation in Mexico (with Javier Osorioand Livia Schubiger). 2018. Journal of Peace Research 55(2): 252-266. Part of special issue on archival research, edited by Laia Balcells and Chris Sullivan. PDFand online appendix.

• Do All Good Things Go Together? Development Assistance and Violence in Insurgency. 2016. Journal of Politics 78(4). PDF.Replication materials on Dataverse.

• Doctrine and Violence: the Impact of Combatant Training on Civilian Killings (with Ben Oppenheim). 2017. Terrorism and Political Violence 29(6):1126-1148. PDF.

• True Believers, Deserters, and Traitors: Who Leaves Insurgent Groups and Why (with Ben Oppenheim, Abbey Steeleand Juan F. Vargas). 2015. Journal of Conflict Resolution59(5):  794-823. Part of special issue on militias in civil war, edited by Corinna Jentzsch, Livia Schubiger, and Stathis N. Kalyvas. PDF. 

• Vote Choice and Legacies of Violence: Evidence from the 2014 Colombian Presidential Elections (with Juan F. Vargasand Thomas Flores). 2015. Research & Politics 2(2). PDF.

• Bargaining Between Rebel Groups and the Outside Option of Violence (with Håvard Mokleiv Nygård). 2015. Terrorism and Political Violence 27(3): 557-580. PDF.

• How to Make Democracy Self-Enforcing After Civil War: Enabling Credible Yet Adaptable Elite Pacts (with T. Clark Durant). 2014. Conflict Management and Peace Science31(5): 521-540. PDF.

• An Institutional Remedy for Ethnic Patronage Politics (with T. Clark Durant). 2014. Journal of Theoretical Politics26(1): 60-79. PDF.

• Altruism, Righteousness, and Myopia (with T. Clark Durant). 2012. Critical Review 23(3): 257-302. PDF.

Coedited Special Issue

• Special Symposium on Collective Vigilantism in Global Comparative Perspective (coedited with Dara Kay Cohen and Danielle Jung). 2023. Comparative Politics 55(2).

Book chapters

• Rebel Governance and Political Participation (with Abbey Steele). 2025. In Institutional Legacies of Violent Conflict: Development and State-Building in the Shadow of Wartime Institutional Change, edited by Patricia Justino. Oxford University Press.

• Participación de exintegrantes de las Farc-EP en programas de reincorporación: Evidencia de 3 años de atenciones (with Leopoldo Fergusson, Natalia Garbiras-Díaz, Juana García Duque). 2023. In ¿Cómo va la paz en Colombia?, edited by Angelika Rettberg and Laura Betancur. PDF.

• Public Policy Analysis and Decision Making in the Military Forces: the Havana Experience (with Paula Lorena Mora-Hernández, Juan David Gelvez-Ferreira and Sebastián Bitar). 2020. In Policy Analysis in Colombia, edited by Pablo Sanabria and Nadia Rubaii. The Policy Press.

Revise and Resubmit

• Transitional Justice Institutions and Political Engagement (with Abbey Steele and Sebastián Pantoja). Comparative Politics. Revised and resubmitted.

Reject and Resubmit

• News Media Reporting Patterns and our Understanding of Global Unrest (with Andrew Shaver, Joe Felter, Kately Arriaga, Anne Blackburn, Lesley Chavez, Kyle Cruz-Anderson, Bryn Farrington, Caterina Hyneman, Alexandra Leal Silva, Talia Lorch, Jack McLean, Mateo Prada and Marie Tobia). Journal of Political Economy. Working paper.

Under Review

• Building Trust in State Actors: A Multi-Site Experiment with the Colombian National Police (with Verónica Abril, Ervyn Norza, Santiago Pérez-Vincent, and Santiago Tobón). Pre-Analysis Plan. PDF.

• Why Do Citizens Support Ineffective Military Policing Policies? Evidence from Field and Survey Experiments in Colombia (with Rob Blair and Jessica Zarkin). PDF.

Working Papers

• Maps to Die For? (with Hein Goemans, Andi Zhou, and Joel Selway). Pre-Analysis Plan.

• Rank-and-File: How the United Nations Affects Former Foot Soldiers’ Attitudes (with Natalia Garbiras-Díaz, Leopoldo Fergusson, Juana García and Laia Balcells). Pre-Analysis Plan. PDF.

• A New Path to Police Reform? Effects of a New Police Squad in Ceará, Brazil (with Joana Monteiro and André Mancha).

• Reducing Crime Without the Police? (with Ignacio Sarmiento and Olga Lucía Sarmiento).

• Marijuana Regulations and Crime: A Meta-Analysis (with María Castillo, Cecilia Suescún and Lucas Marín).

• Do Protests Cause Crime? Evidence from Bogotá, Colombia (with Jorge Ochoa and Lucía Mendoza Mora).

• Motorcycle Restrictions and Crime in Colombia (with Leonardo Bonilla and Eduard Martínez). PDF.

Press coverage in El Tiempo.
Press coverage on Caracol TV.

• Trust and Reincorporation of Ex-Combatants: Evidence from Colombia (with Sebastián Bitar and Angelika Rettberg).

• Accents as Capital: Experimental Evidence from Colombia (with Leopoldo Fergusson and Natalia Garbiras-Díaz).

Mi agenda de investigación se centra en el crimen y la violencia política en América Latina, especialmente en Colombia, México, Brasil y Centroamérica. Para estudiar estos y otros temas utilizo una combinación de métodos cuantitativos experimentales y cuasi-experimentales. Antes de cursar mis estudios doctorales, trabajé durante tres años en el ámbito de los derechos humanos y el desarrollo en África subharaniana.

• “Una mirada a la política de drogas en Colombia: análisis descriptivo de las incautaciones entre 2016 y 2023,” with María Castillo, Cecilia Suescún, Jorge Luis Ochoa, and Lucas Marín.

• “Cannabis regulado y seguridad: ¿qué dice la evidencia?” with Cecilia Suescún. 2024. Documento CESED.

• “Violencia basada en género en el Pacífico,” with Cecilia Suescún and Juanita Durán. 2024. Documento CESED.

• “Violencia basada en género: prevención e investigación,” with Cecilia Suescún and Juanita Durán. 2023. Documento CESED.

• “Barreras al acceso a la justicia para víctimas de la violencia basada en género en Buenaventura,” with Ana Sofía Pisco, Cecilia Suescún and Juanita Durán. 2023. Documento CESED.

• “Patrullaje militar: Debates y evidencia para Colombia,” with Mariana Aguirre Rivillas, Robert Blair, and Lucía Mendoza Mora. 2023. Documento CESED.

• “¿Cómo mejorar la relación entre la policía y la ciudadanía?” with Lucía Mendoza Mora. 2023. Documento CESED.

• “Las mujeres de Buenaventura,” with Ana Sofía Pisco, Juanita Durán, and Cecilia Suescún. 2023. Op-ed in El Espectador.

• “La extorsión sostiene el crimen organizado en Colombia,” with Lucía Mendoza Mora. 2023. Op-ed in El Espectador.

• “Caracterizando el delito urbano en Tumaco,” with María Paula Gutiérrez Casadiego, Lucía Mendoza Mora, María Alejandra Vélez, and Ervyn Norza Céspedes. 2022. Documento CESED.

• “La distribución espacial del delito urbano en Quibdó, 2014-2019,” with Lucía Mendoza Mora, María Alejandra Vélez, and Ervyn Norza Céspedes. 2021. Documento CESED.

• “La distribución espacial del delito urbano en Buenaventura, 2014-2019,” with Lucía Mendoza Mora, María Alejandra Vélez, and Ervyn Norza Céspedes. 2021. Documento CESED.

• “¿Qué tan efectivas son las cámaras corporales en los agentes de policía?” with Adelaida Boada. 2021. Documento CESED.

• “Análisis: entre la paz y la inseguridad en los municipios PDET,” with Adelaida Boada. 2021. El Espectador.

• “Impacto de las bases de datos de ADN sobre el crimen” with Adelaida Boada. 2021. Centro de Estudios sobre Seguridad y Drogas, Documento Temático #19.

• “Efecto de la prohibición del consumo de sustancias psicoactivas en los niveles de criminalidad en Bogotá,” with Dayanna Erazo, Eduard Martínez, and Ervyn Norza. 2021. Centro de Estudios Sobre Seguridad y Drogas, Documento Temático #14, with Policía Nacional de Colombia.

• “¿Mejorar los Parques Reduce el Delito? Evidencia en Bogotá?” with Estefanía Ramírez and Ervyn Norza. 2021. Centro de Estudios Sobre Seguridad y Drogas, Documento Temático #13, with Policía Nacional de Colombia.

• Media coverage in Semana, Caracol Radio, RCN TV, and El Tiempo.

• “¿Cómo prevenir el crimen en Colombia? Estrategias efectivas de convivencia y seguridad ciudadana,” with Juan David Gélvez, Juan Sebastián Franco Mora and Mateo Prada. 2020. Centro de Estudios sobre Seguridad y Drogas, Documento Temático – Edición Especial, with Departamento Nacional de Planeación.

• “Actitudes de exintegrantes de las Farc–EP frente a la reincorporación,” with Ana Arjona, Leopoldo Fergusson, Natalia Garbiras-Díaz, Juana García, Tatiana Hiller and Lewis Polo. 2020. Escuela de Gobierno Documento de Trabajo #75.
Also published as Documento CEDE #24, Facultad de Economía, Universidad de los Andes.

• “Homicidios en Latinoamérica: ¿qué funciona para combatir la violencia letal?” with Daniela Gualtero. 2020. Centro de Estudios Sobre Seguridad y Drogas, Documento Temático #6.

• “Seguridad, Drogas y Coronavirus,” with Catalina Mahecha, David Restrepo, Maria Alejandra Vélez and Pablo Zuleta. 2020. Cerosetenta.

• “Migración venezolana y seguridad ciudadana en América Latina,” with Juan Sebastián Franco Mora. 2020. Foco Económico.

• “El Ejército y la Seguridad Ciudadana: Un Experimento de Campo en Cali, Colombia,” with Rob Blair. 2020.Foco Económico.

• “Colombia’s Largest Remaining Rebel Army Shows its Teeth.” 2020. Political Violence at a Glance.

• “El costo social de flexibilizar el porte de armas,” with Mateo Prada. 2020. El Espectador.

• “Una opinión impopular sobre la cadena perpetua para violadores de menores.” 2019. El Espectador.

• “Atacando la reincidencia criminal con evidencia y tecnología.” 2019. El Espectador.

• “Colombia’s historic peace agreement with the FARC is fraying. We talked to 1,700 Colombians to understand why.” 2019. Washington Post’s Monkey Cage.

• “Perceptions of and Experience with the Peace Process in Colombia: Report on pilot study from Mesetas and Tumaco,” with Marianne Dahl, Helga Malmin Binningsbø, and Håvard Mokleiv Nygård. 2018. Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) Paper.

• “Attitudes Towards the Implementation of the Colombian Peace Agreement in Mesetas,” with Marianne Dahl, Helga Malmin Binningsbø, and Håvard Mokleiv Nygård. 2018. Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) Paper.

• “Attitudes Towards the Implementation of the Colombian Peace Agreement in Tumaco,” with Marianne Dahl, Helga Malmin Binningsbø, and Håvard Mokleiv Nygård. 2017. Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) Paper.

• “Cuando el Descabezamiento del Crimen Organizado Funciona: el Caso del Clan del Golfo en Colombia,” with Juan David Gelvez Ferreira. 2017. London School of Economics Latin America and Caribbean Blog. October 25.

• “Institutional Failure in the World’s Most Violent Country: Prison Conditions in El Salvador,” with Viveca. Pavon. 2017. Political Violence at a Glance. August 21.

• “Reporte Final: Data4Peace Hackathon,” with Mike Findley, Angelika Rettberg, Oliver Kaplan, Joe Young, and collaborators. 2017. Documento de Trabajo. Escuela de Gobierno Alberto Lleras Camargo, Universidad de los Andes.

• “Violencia Histórica y Violencia Contemporánea en el Sur de Estados Unidos”. 2017. Tribuna: Revista de Asuntos Políticos. Escuela de Gobierno Alberto Lleras Camargo, Universidad de los Andes.

• “Rejecting Peace? Legacies of Violence in Colombia,” with Håvard Mokleiv Nygård. 2017. Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) Conflict Trends.

• “¿Qué Pasó, Colombia?”. 2016. Foco Económico.

• “Colombia’s Peace Plebiscite: the Case for Yes and the Case for No.” 2016. The Conversation Global. “¿Qué Vendrá Después de la Paz? Futurología desde la Ciencia Política.” 2016. Tribuna: Revista de Asuntos Políticos. Escuela de Gobierno Alberto Lleras Camargo, Universidad de los Andes.

• “Insurgent Defection in Civil War: Lessons from Colombia for Combating ISIS,” with Ben Oppenheim, Abbey Steele, and Juan F. Vargas. 2015. Political Violence at a Glance.

• 2025-10: CPOL-2158 CRIMEN, JUSTICIA Y LA POLICÍA (16 SEMANAS)

• 2025-10: CBCC-1177  COLOMBIA: ESPACIO, TIEMPO, DIFERENCIA (CICLO 2 DE 8 SEMANAS)